A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The ministry of external affairs on Monday said that a joint statement could not be issued following the BRICS deputy foreign ministers and special envoys on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) meeting, which took place on April 24 in the national capital, as member countries were unable to reach a general consensus concerning the conflict in West Asia.
The Indian rupee depreciated by 52 paise to settle at 93.35 against the US dollar, driven by failed US-Iran peace talks, surging crude oil prices due to a potential US blockade of Iranian ports, and a global flight to the greenback. This geopolitical uncertainty is also leading to foreign capital withdrawal from domestic equities.
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Gold and silver prices saw a significant decline in the national capital, with silver falling by Rs 7,800 to Rs 2.43 lakh per kilogram and gold by Rs 1,500 to Rs 1.54 lakh per 10 grams, as investors booked profits amid persistent doubts over the durability of the West Asia ceasefire.
HDFC Bank reported an 8.04 per cent increase in its March quarter consolidated net profit to Rs 20,350.76 crore, but highlighted potential near-term risks for small-business borrowers due to the West Asia conflict. The bank's CEO also addressed the recent resignation of its non-executive chairman and hinted at a potential top-level reorganisation.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has proposed a 20-point policy agenda to the finance ministry, including a conflict-linked emergency credit line guarantee scheme and tax rationalisation on energy inputs, to support MSMEs, exporters, and energy-intensive industries affected by the ongoing West Asia war.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
The Indian government has increased import duties on gold and silver from 6 per cent to 15 per cent to curb inbound shipments of precious metals amid a rising import bill due to the West Asia crisis.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia have slowed deal momentum in Dubai's luxury residential market, but Indian high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) are not exiting their marquee assets, with any 'discounted' resale deals attributed to investor liquidity stress rather than geopolitical flight.
India's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is projected to maintain an annual run-rate of approximately $200 billion, evenly split between domestic, inbound, and outbound transactions, despite global geopolitical turbulence, according to Rajesh Singhi, global co-head, M&A Advisory, Standard Chartered Bank.
The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has urged the Indian government to gradually restore the Rs 10-per-litre cut in special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel over six to nine months. This move aims to relieve pressure on government finances as crude oil prices stabilise, without significantly impacting consumer sentiment.
Fitch Ratings has warned that India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) could face significant credit pressure if crude oil prices remain elevated, leading to eroded earnings and increased working capital needs due to delayed fuel price pass-through.
Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
Amid escalating tensions in West Asia, the Indian government has established a control room to provide crucial support and assistance to the nearly one crore Indian citizens residing in the region.
The measures announced by it risk backfiring, disrupting the foreign exchange market, and intensifying the very pressures they seek to contain, with broader consequences for the economy points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
Even as the benchmark and broader indices were down sharply on Monday due to escalating tensions in West Asia, the Nifty Defence index ended the session in the green.
Indian benchmark equity indices experienced a significant downturn, with the Sensex plummeting over 800 points and the Nifty falling sharply, driven by rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and foreign capital outflows.
Aseem Mahajan, Additional Secretary (Gulf) in the Ministry of External Affairs, on Saturday informed that five Indians have been killed and one is missing due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia. He added that Indian missions remain open round the clock and are constantly working to provide assistance.
A downsizing in the prime minister's convoy was implemented in his recent domestic visits, official sources said.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 14,231 crore from Indian equities so far in May, extending the total outflow for 2026 to over Rs 2 lakh crore, driven by persistent global macroeconomic uncertainties including inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 21,000 crore (around $2.3 billion) from Indian equities over the last four trading sessions amid deteriorating global risk sentiment triggered by the West Asia crisis.
Iran has submitted its latest proposal aimed at advancing negotiations to end the ongoing West Asia conflict with the US, days after the Islamic Republic submitted a fresh proposal through regional intermediaries to cease its military operations in the Strait of Hormuz, which is likely to get rejected by Washington.
The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has appealed to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for liquidity support to Indian exporters, citing a significant increase in freight costs and extended payment cycles due to the ongoing West Asia conflict.
'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rupee recovered to 95.18 against the US dollar after hitting an all-time intra-day low of 95.44. The recovery was supported by possible RBI intervention amid renewed Gulf tensions and rising crude oil prices.
The Indian rupee depreciated 20 paise to close at a fresh all-time low of 94.88 against the US dollar, driven by surging Brent crude oil prices, hovering around USD 115 per barrel, and persistent foreign capital outflows.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
'... with the rest split between mid and smallcaps, as valuations are becoming more attractive across segments.'
The Asian Games could shift to odd-numbered years after the 2026 edition, effectively moving to the year before the Olympics to serve as a key qualifying event across more sports, according to reports.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed nearly 1 per cent lower due to surging crude oil prices, weak global market trends, and significant foreign fund outflows, with geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns further dampening investor sentiment.
Indian investors have seen their wealth erode by a staggering Rs 48.29 lakh crore since the West Asia war began on February 28, leading to a significant downturn in the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
India's defence expenditure surged to $92.1 billion in 2025, making it the world's fifth-largest military spender, according to SIPRI data. This 8.9 per cent year-on-year rise was primarily driven by operational and procurement needs following heightened regional tensions with Pakistan in May 2025.
The gems and jewellery industry anticipates challenging times following the government's decision to increase gold import duty to 15 per cent, a move that exporters warn could fuel the grey market and heighten smuggling risks.
India has no plans to ration fuel supplies despite ongoing disruptions in global energy markets, according to a top oil ministry official. The country has maintained adequate inventories of crude products and LPG while diversifying imports to manage supply risks.
India has officially submitted its expression of interest to host the 2038 Asian Games, according to a top official of the national Olympic body, marking a significant step in the country's broader strategy to become a global hub for major multi-sporting events.
US President Donald Trump received a red carpet welcome in Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade, the Iran war, and other key issues. The visit underscores the importance both nations place on their relationship amid ongoing tensions.
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